Relegation?

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Relegation?

Post by Sandie on Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:01 pm

I think it is now time to start asking the question of the dreaded 'R' word. We were all questioning the bookies when they installed us second favourites but now we find ourselves in the bottom three (still) with some tough games and without many positives to cling to. The one thing we have going for us is that anything can happen in football and we're only less than a quarter into the season. As things stand, I'd say things are looking very dark for ourselves, Newcastle and Sunderland.

We've got 4 points all season and we need to double that total just to catch up the clubs above us!

Can someone please produce something positive to take my mind of things?
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Re: Relegation?

Post by villabromsgrove on Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:14 pm

The only thing positive I can think of is that Fox might sack Sherwood after that gutless team selection. On the other hand he might be barmy enough to extend his contract!
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Re: Relegation?

Post by Sandie on Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:19 pm

At the moment I think the biggest positive I can find is that we have two weeks until our next appointment with disappointment.

It's something, I guess...
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Re: Relegation?

Post by villabromsgrove on Sun Oct 04, 2015 1:52 pm

Thirty games to put things right. Do we waste some of them" rejigging" and guessing both selection and tactics, or do we appoint a manager with more than just 50 football games worth of management experience?

Mark Hughes had ten times Sherwood's experience yesterday, and it showed!
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Re: Relegation?

Post by GadgetMan on Sun Oct 04, 2015 2:48 pm

I think it's a very real possibility this year. In Tim we really do have an untested manager. Yed ok, he 'saved' us last year and we have to be thankful for that. I'm not sure that automatically qualifies him as having the credentials to keep us safe this year.

We ended the season in dire form, we continued that in pre-season (but it was ok as it was just about fitness) and it's ongoing (and we still need to get fitter?!)

I said it a few times last year, I was worried Tim wasn't the long term solution. He was great for lifting the team's morale as he's a infectious character (that could also be his downfall, as his downbeat manner in recent weeks, will also pass to the players as easily as the upbeat stuff) but would he be the man after the honeymoon period?

It seems as weeks go by he gets more and more desperate and has run out of ideas. The biggest single worry (as with Lambert) Was not getting things wrong, it was not knowing how to fix it and put it right. Both men admitted they didn't know what the answer was. That's a damning fact.

Will Villa act? Well we know Randy doesn't like too, but we've seen evidence that Fox will if needed. You can be sure Tim will be giving him all the assurances, it's early, the team needs to gel, get fit etc etc! Will he buy it? I think he will for now. So it's a case of not falling too far away from the rest before Fox finds his balls to admit that Tim isn't experienced enough for a club the size of Villa.

Ironic that Lerner has stopped short of funding the real deal on the playing field and we've had to make do with 'potential' Yet he pays top whack for 'potential' in managers and then has paid a fortune to get rid of each one. The 12m spent in manager costs, could easily have paid the salaries of two or three proven EPL players. Depressing huh?!

So, yes I do think this could be the year, unless Fox and RL act swiftly, but I don't think they will. I don't think they'll act until at least December at the earliest. Once again we're in a relegation dogfight.

Sunderland will now probably turn to Big Sam, so that will rule him out for us. Who do we then turn to (perhaps we need a 'Who should be our next manager' thread?)
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Re: Relegation?

Post by Sandie on Sun Oct 04, 2015 4:54 pm

Good post. I'm wondering who's out there and available in the short term that can replace Tim. Big Sam is such an obvious answer that Sunderland will appoint him long before we act. Looking at the other people in the odds (always a good indicator of people who might be ready to get back on the merry-go-round) there's Pearson, Di Matteo and Michel Laudrup all high up in the odds. Also a couple of random ones like Sean Dyche (good shout?) who'd require compensation being at Burnley and Patrick Viera who's not managed before. None of them leap out as outstanding candidates. Sunderland have got into that situation where they appoint the first managerial cab off the rank each season, get the new manager bounce, find out that whoever they've appointed is not up to fighting the deep-lying problems at the club then rinse and repeat. We need to take a more thoughtful approach as we too have deep lying problems. The short-term fire needs to be fought but there also needs to be answers to longer-term problems.

Back to the subject in hand, here's the games for each of the clubs at the bottom until the end of November:

Bournemouth, 15th, 8pts
Man City (away)
Tottenham (home)
Southampton (away)
Newcastle (home)
Swansea (away)
Everton (home)

Chelsea, 16th, 8pts
Us (home)
West Ham (away)
Liverpool (home)
Stoke (away)
Norwich (home)
Tottenham (away)

West Brom, 17th, 8pts
Sunderland (home)
Norwich (away)
Leicester (home)
Man Utd (away)
Arsenal (home)
West Ham (away)

Ourselves, 18th, 4pts
Chelsea (away)
Swansea (home)
Spurs (away)
Man City (home)
Everton (away)
Watford (home)

Sunderland, 19th, 3pts
West Brom (away)
Newcastle (home)
Everton (away)
Southampton (home)
Palace (away)
Stoke (home)

Newcastle, 20th, 3pts
Norwich (home)
Sunderland (away)
Stoke (home)
Bournemouth (away)
Leicester (home)
Palace (away)

I know it's too early to look at this kind of thing but we already have a 'run-chase' on for points and unless we get some unexpected points in that run we could find ourselves in a very precarious position by the end of November. Would Sherwood still even be manager by the time we face Watford? He needs to get something on the way. We could easily end up bottom considering Newcastle's relaxed run and if Sunderland get the 'new manager bounce' when they appoint someone.
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Re: Relegation?

Post by Sandie on Sun Oct 18, 2015 4:40 pm

http://playingfor90.com/2015/10/17/player-ratings-spell-doom-for-aston-villa/

The Premier League season is only in week nine, but Aston Villa should be seriously worried about the threat of relegation.

Let me admit my bias right off the bat. I really dislike Aston Villa manager Tim Sherwood. I don’t like his tactics and I detest his personality. His time at Spurs was borderline unbearable. This article isn’t about that though. It’s about why upon close examination, Aston Villa appears doomed for relegation.

Medium size clubs like Aston Villa that start the season in the drop zone typically owe it to woeful back lines. It’s very concerning for Villa that they can’t say this at all. Their individual defensive performances have been terrific on the year. In fact, two of their back four, Micah Richards and Jordan Amavi, rate highly enough to be featured on Whoscored.com’s team of the year to date.

The solid performance of the defense should, perhaps counterintuitively, trouble Aston Villa fans. There isn’t much room for improvement in the back four. Their path to safety from relegation won’t be as simple as hiring a Tony Pulis type manager to solidify the back line. Instead, they must find a way to manufacture offense.

The quest for goals is much more complicated than shoring up a porous defense. The latter can be done with drill and discipline. The former generally requires a drastic tactical change or talent influx.

Achieving either of those things usually takes significant investment both in terms of time and money. Aston Villa ownership doesn’t seem willing to spend the cash and time is running out.

Sherwood’s men have only managed a meager seven goals thus far and it’s difficult to see where the help may come from. The only attacking players that have been reasonably effective are Rudy Gestede and Jack Grealish.

Don’t forget that Gestede is in his first full Premier League season and Grealish is only 20-years old. It’s highly unlikely they can maintain their performance for an entire season without some dips in form.

The candidates for help might be even more uncertain. You must either believe that Gabriel Agbonlahor will play the season of his life or you must further place hope in Villa’s youth. The latter is unlikely, but is still the more possible of the two.

The youth in question are young forwards Jordan Ayew and Adama Traore. Stop me if you’ve read this before, but both of these men are in the first Premier League seasons. Counting on such youth and inexperience to supply enough goals to climb out of the relegation zone should be keeping Aston Villa fans up at night. Unfortunately for their faithful, it’s their only real hope.
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Re: Relegation?

Post by Chris Harte on Mon Oct 19, 2015 1:23 pm

Sandie wrote:Can someone please produce something positive to take my mind of things?
Sorry, I can't.

We're fucked.

I suppose the regular away supporters will get to visit some different places next season.

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Re: Relegation?

Post by villabromsgrove on Mon Oct 19, 2015 3:20 pm

The only way I think we'll survive this season is if Lerner/Fox sack Sherwood immediately, and then spend sack loads of money on a top manager with top experience .... and that isn't going to happen.

So relegation is almost certain.
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Re: Relegation?

Post by GadgetMan on Mon Oct 19, 2015 4:01 pm

Relegation would look like a disaster on Fox's CV, especially in his first full year and first manager pick. With his 1 Million a year salary, I have a feeling he won't be hanging around too long to make a change. Given a section of support were still singing Sherwoods name v Chelsea (apparently) I can possibly see why he wants to give him at more time. Sherwood is making that increasingly difficult for him and a loss to Swansea will seal his fate.

Then it's about who we go for and where we set the bar. I'm convinced we will take the safe option and go for Moyes and that may well do the trick. He has enough about him to get us defensively sound and hard to beat. I'm unexcited by him, however if that's what it takes to stop the rot, then so be it.

A note of caution. Moyes has underachieved at R Sociedad, with a squad of europeans, so I'm sceptical he's the guy for our squad.
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Re: Relegation?

Post by Sandie on Mon Oct 19, 2015 4:09 pm

villabromsgrove wrote:The only way I think we'll survive this season is if Lerner/Fox sack Sherwood immediately, and then spend sack loads of money on a top manager with top experience

Agreed. The longer the Sherwood car crash is permitted to continue the further and further we will get from safety. I'm not even sure it requires a particularly great manager to improve on what Tim is doing. What will require one is getting enough points to pull us to safety. We're already adrift by four points, a couple of adverse results in the next round of fixtures could make that even worse. We need two wins AND results going our way to be safe. In past seasons we have battled relegation but have usually had three poorer teams or clubs with major problems we could rely on to do worse than us. That luxury (if you can call it that) isn't with us this season. We're the poor team and we're the club with major problems.

Out of interest I looked up last season's table. I was curious as to whether it's the two/three clubs at the bottom performing more poorly, the ones above doing better or if this season's table is typical. Here's last season's table at this point:


Last season a win for QPR (who were 19th like we are) and a couple of other results going their way would have taken them to 15th and out of the relegation zone. If that happens to us this season we would end up in, err, 18th. I look at the relegation battle this season and my feeling is that not all three of the clubs in the relegation zone (early though it is) will stay up, in fact Bournemouth are the only club I can see who might replace one of us. And honestly, I think the two North East clubs are in a better place than we are. They're playing each other next weekend and they can't both lose that!
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Re: Relegation?

Post by South London Villan on Tue Oct 20, 2015 9:45 pm

I think there were some positives, there was an attacking threat through the creativity of Grealish and Gil, Adama was strong when he came on for Ayew, and Guestede had chances.

Up until Guzans gift Chelsea never really troubled us, Hutton was out of position but the ricochet off his heal was a typical goal that Villa concede and could have gone any where, I agree with Tim on that one, that they got lucky.

Richardson was a strange choice, I would have preferred to start with Amavi, Adama replacing Ayew was also a positive move and again he looks like a strong, player. Similar to Jack he needs to work on his defensive contribution.

I would also have played Sanchez, he has proven International for and would have stood up to the Chelsea galacticos.

I again would put Sinclair ahead of Ayew in my starting Xl.

I would like to beleive that Okore will partner Richards in the future, Gana is worthy of mention as always.

we have to win 12 from 29, I think we can do it, I think we can get results and strengthen in January with a strikerband a keeper.

It will probably be Adebayor and Walker from Spurs, it should be just about enough.
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Re: Relegation?

Post by villabromsgrove on Sun Oct 25, 2015 1:55 pm

We're bottom of the league .... 20th .... get it right Randy!
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Re: Relegation?

Post by Sandie on Sun Oct 25, 2015 2:06 pm

I expected this to happen, to be honest, but I think getting the right man in next can provide the lift we require. The problem is I'm not sure how many of the clubs above us will be bad enough to drop into the shit to replace us. Maybe Norwich and Bournemouth? How badly will the two wasted months under Tim affect us?
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Re: Relegation?

Post by South London Villan on Sat Oct 31, 2015 11:58 am

I love articles like this;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/aston-villa/11966587/Why-sacking-Tim-Sherwood-could-give-Aston-Villa-a-platform-for-Premier-League-survival.html

Have a look, Palace 2013/14 were bottom after 10 games, changed manager finished 11th.
Southampton, 2012/13 bottom after 10, changed manager finished 14th
Tottenham 2008/09 bottom after 10 and finished 8th.

All is not lost chaps, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
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